Sunday, October 30, 2011

Why I Hate Baseball

One of the many reasons I hate summertime is because after the NBA playoffs end the only sport on is baseball. Baseball leading SportsCenter. Baseball on TBS (instead of Saved By The Bell after school growing up). Baseball on Sunday nights. I can't stand baseball, and frankly I don't know how anyone else can either. In my opinion, "America's past time" needs to stay in the past.

Now that the baseball season is over (WAHOO!), I'm going to tell you why I hate baseball and you should too.

Reason #1: It's Boring
I've been to 10 or 15 baseball games in my lifetime (I know, not that many) and every time I go I don't cheer for 1 team - I cheer for the pitchers to get the batters out as quickly as possible. Baseball is just plain boring! Pitch, wait 50 seconds, pitch, foul ball, batter steps out of the batter's box, wait 50 seconds, pitch, etc. While NBA games last 2.5 hours and NFL games last about 3 hours, each of those have halftimes. Baseball has no halftime (the 7th inning stretch is relatively short), yet still lasts 3 to 3.5 hours.

Reason #2: Different Rules
Pitchers hit in one league but not in the other - how is that fair? Considering the disparity in batting average between pitchers, historically the worst hitters, and designated hitters, whose sole job is to hit, this doesn't seem fair. And what happens during interleague play is an abomination; how can you expect a pitcher than never hits to hit or a team that never has a DH to use one?

Also, the stadiums are all different. If someone hits the ball 360 feet to left field in one stadium it's a home run, but in another it can be caught for an out. What would you say if NFL stadiums could change their goalpost heights to whatever they wanted, or some NBA stadiums could move their 3 point line out a few feet? Isn't that what baseball is doing with these different stadiums?

Reason #3: Some of the Best Players Rarely Play
Every year you hear the same thing going into the playoffs: good pitching gets wins championships. Yet, pitchers really only play every fifth game. Shouldn't we have a sport where some of the best players play in every game?

Reason #4: No Salary Cap
If you're in a big market, you have more money and can get any player you want. There's a reason the Yankees and Red Sox make the playoffs every year, and it isn't because they have better GMs or scouting departments. How come all of the other major sports leagues have a salary cap? Maybe because it provides competitive balance? Sure, every few years you'll have a small market team that goes to the playoffs a few years in a row, but they can't keep that up. Eventually the competitive edge that the small market teams have spreads to the big market teams, such as what happened with the Oakland A's (read Moneyball!).

Reason #5: It's More Luck Than Skill
Each baseball team plays 162 games in the regular season. You would think there would be a few teams that win 70% of their games, which would equate to 113 wins. The MLB record for most wins in a season is 116!

It's considered a big accomplishment for a baseball team to win 100 games, a winning percentage of just 0.617. The data is consistent with this, with somewhere between 0 and 3 teams winning at least 100 games over the past 10 years. But why is that such an accomplishment? Is a winning percentage 10% higher than the 0.500 actually good?

Here's some data from the last 10 years for each of the MLB, NBA, and NFL.

MLB
YearMost Wins≥ 100 wins (0.617)
2011102 (0.630)1
201097 (0.599)0
2009103 (0.636)1
2008100 (0.617)1
200797 (0.599)0
200697 (0.599)0
2005100 (0.617)1
2004105 (0.648)2
2003101 (0.623)3
2002103 (0.636)3

NBA
YearMost Wins≥ 50 wins (0.610)≥ 60 wins (0.732)
201162 (0.756)92
201061 (0.744)121
200966 (0.805)93
200866 (0.805)111
200767 (0.817)72
200664 (0.780)63
200562 (0.756)81
200461 (0.744)81
200360 (0.732)72
200261 (0.744)71

NFL
YearMost Wins≥ 10 wins (0.625)≥ 12 wins (0.750)
201014 (0.875)134
200914 (0.875)104
200813 (0.813)105
200716 (1.000)114
200614 (0.875)85
200514 (0.875)134
200415 (0.938)95
200314 (0.875)136
200212 (0.750)93
Winning 50 games in basketball, which is comparable to 100 games in baseball, is extremely common. In fact, there have been teams that have missed the playoffs after winning 50 games, and that's in a league where more than half the teams makes the playoffs! It's the same story in the NFL, where a good portion of teams finish the season with more than 10 wins (again, comparable to 100 wins in baseball).

I do realize that there's only 16 games in the NFL, so a win is much more valuable and there's less time to regress to the mean. Yet I can't help but think that a baseball "win" is based much more on luck than actual skill. I want a sport to be based on talent, coaching, and chemistry, minimizing luck as much as possible.

Reason #6: Not a Team Game
Baseball is not a team game. Don't get me wrong - there are baseball teams, but players don't need to work together to succeed. A majority of the game is the pitcher against the batter, one on one. The only "chemistry" that a team needs is between pitchers and catchers. Otherwise you can pretty much throw together any random group of baseball players and they'll be able to play together.

NFL Picks: Week 8

Saints (-10.5) over RAMS
Is Vegas not aware that the Rams are winless and without a QB while the Saints put up 62 (!!!!) points last week against another winless team? How is this line not at least 2 TDs? I'd be shocked if the Saints don't win by at least 21 points.

Dolphins (+9.5) over GIANTS
Typical game where Eli Manning and the G-Men are supposed to dominate, which means the Giants will play poorly and either lose outright or barely cover. The Giants haven't exactly played any good teams yet either (no, Philly is not good). Dolphins will surprise people early then throw away the game in the last few minutes (a.k.a. tank) and lose by a TD.

49ERS (-9.5) over Browns
The Browns scored 6 points against the Seahawks last week (at home, as I recall). Now they get to go up against the NFL's 2nd ranked defense (Ravens are first).  All the Niners' offense should need to do is put up more than 13 points to cover this, because I don't think Cleveland will be scoring more than one field goal.

Patriots (-2.5) over STEELERS
I still don't trust this Steelers team even though they're now 5-2. We'll see how their secondary handles Tom Brady. Roethlisberger should put up a ton of yards on the Pats' secondary, but he'll throw one or two picks to cost them the game.

Last Week: 1-3
Season Record: 14-8

Thursday, October 27, 2011

The Week That Was: The Palmer Catastrophe

RAIDERS (-3.5) over Chiefs: Chiefs win 28-0
How wrong was I on this one? If I had known Boller was starting the game I would have immediately changed my mind. But then Palmer came in to top it off with 3 picks of his own to match Boller's. McFadden getting hurt after 2 carries also wasn't great. The thing is, with 6 interceptions you'd think Matt Cassel would be able to have a pretty good game, but instead he went 15 of 30 for 161 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs. The AFC West is a mess. I'm officially done picking with the Raiders.

Packers (-8.5) over VIKINGS: Packers win 33-27
Rodgers was unbelievably good throwing for over 300 yards and 3 TDs but with only 6 incompletions. I'm still not sure how the Vikings put up 27 points, but I do know for sure that Christian Ponder is WAAAY better than Donovan McNabb.

SAINTS (-13.5) over Colts: Saints win 62-7
Can I get extra points for picking this game correctly? What a beatdown! Here's some of the crazy stats the Saints put up:

  • 36 first downs
  • 557 total yards
  • Drew Brees was 31 for 35 (88.5% completions)
  • 236 rushing yards
  • 6 of 8 on first downs
Wowzer!

BROWNS (-3.5) over Seahawks: Browns win 6-3

Worst game ever - I've already talked too much about this game.

This Week: 1-3
Season Record: 14-8

Saturday, October 22, 2011

NFL Picks: Week 7

I apologize for not having better updates and articles besides NFL Picks, but work has been crazy this past week.

On to the picks...

RAIDERS (-3.5) over Chiefs
Adam Schefter is reporting that Carson Palmer will be starting. As bad as he, or any other healthy Raiders QB is, their team is still much better than the Chiefs. McFadden will not be denied. However, if Palmer does start then he's going to have a completion rate under 50% and more INTs than TDs.

Packers (-8.5) over VIKINGS
This is how the Vikings welcome Christian Ponder into the league? With the Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers? B.J. Raji? McNabb was awful, but the season is lost so throw him out there for another game. Wait one more week and Ponder would have gotten his first start against the Panthers. Let's hope his confidence doesn't get shot.

SAINTS (-13.5) over Colts
The Saints lost the last game (the are pissed), are playing at home (great home field advantage), and have their coach back. Plus the Colts are tanking the season. Saints should easily put up 28 this game and I don't think the Colts can get to 14.

BROWNS (-3.5) over Seahawks
The west coast teams are bucking the trend this year of having an awful record when coming east to play a 1:00pm game. But I still don't think the Seahawks are good and the Browns have been consistently putting up about 16 ppg (which I think will be enough).

Last Week: 1-3
Season Record: 11-5

Wednesday, October 19, 2011

The Week That Was: McNabb Left to Ponder What Went Wrong


So many good puns with Christian Ponder ending the McNera. McNabb hasn't been good for years, but the blame seemed to always be pushed onto someone else. First the Eagles didn't have receivers, then the Redskins' coach didn't like him, and now he's been awful with the best RB in the league. It's OVER!

Bills (+3.5) over GIANTS: Giants win 27-24
I covered, but I didn't like it. To me the Giants seem like one of the worst 4-2 teams in recent memory. They've beaten: Rams, Eagles, Cardinals, and Bills. Apparently they have the toughest schedule the rest of the way. Looking at their schedule I don't see how they get more than 8 wins this year.

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Cowboys: Patriots win 20-16
Rob Ryan did his job and the Cowboys' defense shut down Tom Brady. Dallas should have won this game but played not to lose in the end instead of playing to win.

Saints (-4.5) over BUCS: Bucs win 26-20
Everything turned when Sean Payton got injured on the sideline. Payton calls all of the offensive plays for the Saints, so it's no wonder they only put up 20 points.

Dolphins (+7.5) over JETS: Jets win 24-6
The Dolphins should have been up at least 16-0 (2 FGs and a TD) in the middle of the first quarter, but instead were down 6-7 thanks to a Darrelle Revis pass interference penalty pick 6 and the Dolphins being afraid to go for it on 4th and inches. Sanchez was still underwhelming against a horrible Miami defense, and Shonn Greene isn't a good RB.

This Week: 1-3
Season Record: 11-5

Thursday, October 13, 2011

NFL Picks: Week 6

Bills (+3.5) over GIANTS
Can someone explain to me why the Giants are favored by 3.5 points? The last time I checked, they lost to Seattle (knocking me and about 70% of everyone else out of our survivor leagues). The Bills are on a roll and will win this one outright.

PATRIOTS (-7.5) over Cowboys
If there's one game that you know is going to be a shootout this week, it's this game. Both teams have bad defenses and quarterbacks that can sling it. In the end, I think that Romo will have one or two costly turnovers as Brady scores touchdowns on more than 75% of the Patriots' possessions.

Saints (-4.5) over BUCS
The Bucs lost 48-3 last week and the Saints offense cannot be stopped. It worries me that the Saints often give up late scores allowing teams to catch up at the end of games, but I don't see that happening in this one.  Saints should win by double figures.

Dolphins (+7.5) over JETS
Yes, the Dolphins are awful.
Yes, the Dolphins are starting Matt Moore.
Yes, the Jets have lost 3 straight on the road and return home pissed.
Yes, the Dolphins' defense is just what Mark Sanchez needs to have a good game.
But I'm still picking the Dolphins. These rivalry games tend to be close: last year Miami lost 31-23 at home early in the season and later beat the Jets in New York 10-6.


Last Week: 3-1
Season Record: 10-2

The Weekend That Was: Win One For Al

Why oh why did I not choose the Bills to beat the Eagles last week? Maybe I thought the Eagles HAD to win at some point. I guess I forgot that:
  • Andy Reid is NOT a good coach 
  • Philadelphia has no good linebackers and the rest of its defense can't tackle 
  • Michael Vick has no incentive anymore because he just got paid a ton of money 
  • All of the other teams are bringing their "A" games against the so-called Dream Team

Bengals (+2.5) over JAGUARS: Bengals win 30-20
Gabbert actually has been better than I initially thought, but the Bengals are actually pretty good. That fumble return for a touchdown with no time left when the Jags were lateralling all over the place didn't hurt either.

Packers (-5.5) over FALCONS: Packers win 25-14
The Falcons went up 14-0 early in this game...but then the Packers showed up (maybe they thought the game started at 8:30pm CENTRAL time?) and scored the the last 25 points. The Falcons are all but done.

Raiders (+6.5) over TEXANS: Raiders win 25-20
Raiders win again! Of course, when I made this pick I didn't realize that Al Davis was going to pass away or that Andre Johnson was going to leave the game with an injury. Somehow McFadden only got 16 carriers (51 yds) in this game, Campbell was 15-35, and the Raiders STILL won. I guess that's what happens when you play against Matt Schaub.

PATRIOTS (+9.5) over Jets: Patriots win 30-21
That should-have-been touchdown at the end of the first half burns even more now. I was also wrong about the Patriots running up the score in this one, as they settled for the field goal at the end of the game. There's a few things that became even clearer after this one:
  • The Patriots secondary is bottom 5 in the NFL 
  • The Jets don't trust Mark Sanchez and they shouldn't because he SUCKS (if there was one game where he should have been throwing the ball a lot, it was this one) 
  • The Jets will not be winning the Super Bowl this year or anytime soon unless they get a new QB 

This Week: 3-1
Season Record: 10-2